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Poisson model rates Derby at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Derby host Swansea at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 27 November 2024 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Derby's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Championship this season, Swansea have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.10 PPG, Swansea 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Derby's 30% rate and Swansea's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Swansea 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Swansea winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Derby in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Swansea in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Swansea 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 50% | Swansea 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.03 xG and Swansea 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.929 / defence 1.005 | Swansea attack 0.777 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.040. Data: 16 Derby games / 62 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derby 38% | Draw 35% | Swansea 27%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Swansea 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Derby 30% | Swansea 30% BTTS from recent games.

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