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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
38%
2.60
35%
2.86
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Derby xG
Total xG
1.84
0.81
Swansea xG
DerbyDrawSwansea
2.60
38%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.031
λ Away (xG)
0.812
Total xG
1.843
League avg home goals
1.332
League avg away goals
1.040
Derby attack strength
0.929
Derby defence strength
1.005
Swansea attack strength
0.777
Swansea defence strength
0.833
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
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