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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Derby cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stoke City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Stoke City 2-0 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.34 xG and Stoke City 0.83 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stoke City landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Stoke City attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 47% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 22%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Stoke City 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Stoke City's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.28 PPG, Stoke City 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights