Derby 1-2 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Sheffield Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Sheffield Utd at Pride Park in Championship (matchday 46). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Derby — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Derby have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Sheffield Utd have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Sheffield Utd have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Derby have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Derby, 3 for Sheffield Utd and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Derby 3–1 Sheffield Utd — a Derby win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (last 91 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Sheffield Utd in-play tendencies (last 91 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 35 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 55% versus Sheffield Utd 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 45% | Sheffield Utd 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.24 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.018 / defence 0.849 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.970 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.204. Data: built from Derby's last 91 games and Sheffield Utd's last 91.
Result probabilities: Derby 40% | Draw 32% | Sheffield Utd 28%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.50 | Draw 3.11 | Sheffield Utd 3.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Derby's last 10 home games and Sheffield Utd's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 50% (last 10 home games) | Sheffield Utd 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, matchday 46 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 40% | Draw 32% | Sheffield Utd 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Derby 1.24 / Sheffield Utd 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.018 / def 0.849 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.970 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Derby (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sheffield Utd xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Sheffield Utd FAQs
What time does Derby vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Derby vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Derby 1 - 2 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Derby vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Derby vs Sheffield Utd is a Championship fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 40% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Derby and Sheffield Utd will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Derby vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derby's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Utd's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Utd's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 91 games and Sheffield Utd's last 91 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.11
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Derby xG
Total xG
2.23
0.99
Sheffield Utd xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Sheffield Utd Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Derby and 0.99 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby's recent record stands at 33W 20D 38L from 91 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Sheffield Utd, meanwhile, have gone 46W 12D 33L across 91 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.31 PPG, Sheffield Utd on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derby have managed 18W 11D 15L from their last 44 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sheffield Utd's away record stands at 21W 5D 18L across their last 44 away games, a 1.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.42 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Derby (Home) vs Sheffield Utd (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
❓ Derby vs Sheffield Utd Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 33W 20D 38L in their last 91 games (1.31 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 46W 12D 33L in their last 91 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Sheffield Utd's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.48 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Derby or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Sheffield Utd specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
4
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Sheffield Utd H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sheffield Utd?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 2, Sheffield Utd have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Derby and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Sheffield Utd 1-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 48%, Sheffield Utd 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Derby) and 43% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sheffield Utd in 34%; Sheffield Utd in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Sheffield Utd Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Sheffield Utd matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Derby's recent matches and 41% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Sheffield Utd matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Derby's recent games and 43% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Sheffield Utd matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Derby's recent matches and 64% of Sheffield Utd's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sheffield Utd defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.24 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.99 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Utd outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 40% | Draw 32% | Sheffield Utd 28%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sheffield Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 45%, Sheffield Utd 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (91 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (91 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.31 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.98 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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