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Stalemate at Derby's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby and Burnley finished level at 0-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.64 xG and Burnley 1.12 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Burnley attack 1.18 / defence 0.57, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 21% | Draw 32% | Burnley 47%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 46%, Burnley 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burnley's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.54 PPG, Burnley 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights