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Poisson rates Burnley at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Burnley encounter.

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Match Analysis

Derby host Burnley at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Burnley's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Burnley are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Derby's 20% rate and Burnley's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Burnley 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Derby in-play tendencies (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Burnley in-play tendencies (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 45% versus Burnley 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 46% | Burnley 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.64 xG and Burnley 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.860 / defence 0.949 | Burnley attack 1.184 / defence 0.566. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 0.996. Burnley's defence strength of 0.566 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Derby games / 40 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derby 21% | Draw 32% | Burnley 47%. Fair-value odds: Derby 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Burnley 2.13. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Derby's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 20% | Burnley 30% BTTS from recent games.

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