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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Coventry cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Middlesbrough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Middlesbrough 3-1 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.51 xG and Middlesbrough 1.11 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Middlesbrough attack 1.17 / defence 1.01, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 45% | Draw 28% | Middlesbrough 27%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 56%, Middlesbrough 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.64 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights