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Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Stoke City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Stoke City 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.75 xG and Stoke City 0.88 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.75 / defence 0.99 against Stoke City attack 0.78 / defence 0.78, drawn from 30/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 27% | Draw 38% | Stoke City 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Stoke City 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Stoke City's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.58 PPG, Stoke City 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights