Charlton 1-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 36%, yet in-form Birmingham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charlton vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Birmingham travel to The Valley to take on Charlton in Championship (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Charlton have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Charlton have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Birmingham — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Birmingham have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Birmingham are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Charlton have won 1, Birmingham 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Charlton 1–1 Birmingham — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Birmingham trading profile (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 46% versus Birmingham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Birmingham 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.08 xG and Birmingham 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.692 / defence 1.033 | Birmingham attack 0.786 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.212. Charlton's attack rating of 0.692 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Birmingham's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Charlton's last 35 games and Birmingham's last 35.
Result probabilities: Charlton 36% | Draw 33% | Birmingham 31%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.78 | Draw 3.01 | Birmingham 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Birmingham (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charlton 50% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, matchday 36 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 36% | Draw 33% | Birmingham 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Charlton 1.08 / Birmingham 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.692 / def 1.033 | Birmingham attack 0.786 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Charlton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Birmingham xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Birmingham kick off?
Charlton vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Birmingham?
Charlton 1 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is Charlton vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Birmingham part of?
Charlton vs Birmingham is a Championship fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 36% chance of winning, Birmingham a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Charlton and Birmingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Charlton vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.69x the league average against Birmingham's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 35 games and Birmingham's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.01
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.07
0.98
Birmingham xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Charlton and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Charlton and 0.98 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton come into this having played 81 games, going 34W 22D 25L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.98 PPG from 81 outings (47W 19D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Birmingham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Charlton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Charlton's home form reads 22W 10D 8L across their last 40 home games, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 1.62 points per game from their last 40 away games (19W 8D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.60 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Birmingham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
Charlton (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Charlton vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 34W 22D 25L in their last 81 games (1.53 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 47W 19D 15L in their last 81 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Birmingham away?
Charlton's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.90 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Charlton or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Birmingham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Charlton's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Birmingham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 2, Birmingham have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charlton and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Charlton 1-0 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Birmingham?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 50%, Birmingham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Charlton) and 48% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Birmingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charlton's recent matches and 52% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charlton and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Charlton's recent games and 48% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Charlton's recent matches and 80% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Birmingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Birmingham 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.08 xG and Birmingham 0.98 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Birmingham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.69 / defence 1.03 against Birmingham attack 0.79 / defence 1.20, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 36% | Draw 33% | Birmingham 31%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Birmingham 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Birmingham's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.53. Form was overturned, with Charlton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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