West Brom 2-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Hawthorns plays host to West Brom versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 24 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Brom have collected 2.00 PPG across 8 Championship outings this season: 4W 4D 0L. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 0.88 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 2W 2D 0L at The Hawthorns — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns.
QPR (all games): 3W 3D 2L across 8 Championship outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Championship this season (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward West Brom. A 0.50 PPG lead over QPR (2.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — West Brom 62% and QPR 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 50% | QPR 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.60 xG and QPR 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.181 / defence 1.002 | QPR attack 1.174 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.004 / away 1.280. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing West Brom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 West Brom games / 8 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 38% | Draw 29% | QPR 33%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | QPR 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 50% | QPR 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 38% | Draw 29% | QPR 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG West Brom 1.60 / QPR 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.181 / def 1.002 | QPR attack 1.174 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.004 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: West Brom (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.51
QPR xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs QPR kick off?
West Brom vs QPR kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs QPR?
West Brom 2 - 1 QPR.
Where is West Brom vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs QPR part of?
West Brom vs QPR is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 38% chance of winning, QPR a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both West Brom and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Brom and QPR in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-4D-0L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
West Brom's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.17x) against West Brom's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
38%
2.65
29%
3.48
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
West Brom xG
Total xG
3.11
1.51
QPR xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
7%
14.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are West Brom and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for West Brom and 1.51 for QPR, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, West Brom have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 4W 4D 0L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, West Brom are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against QPR.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Brom have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
On the road, QPR have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. QPR's attacking output running into West Brom's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: West Brom have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; QPR in 75%.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and QPR in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 4W 4D 0L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while QPR have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or QPR away?
West Brom's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 2.00 PPG; QPR away: 1.75 PPG.
Have West Brom or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, QPR in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
West Brom
3
Draws
2
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 5, QPR have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when West Brom 1-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and QPR?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 50%, QPR 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for West Brom and 100% for QPR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of West Brom's games and 75% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Brom vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of West Brom's matches and 100% of QPR's.
Do West Brom and QPR tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, QPR in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out QPR 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat QPR 2-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.60 xG and QPR 1.51 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.18 / defence 1.00 against QPR attack 1.17 / defence 1.35, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 38% | Draw 29% | QPR 33%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 50%, QPR 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. QPR (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.