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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Cardiff 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Cardiff 1-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 0.60 xG and Burnley 1.08 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Burnley attack 1.02 / defence 0.48, drawn from 80/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 20% | Draw 33% | Burnley 47%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 44%, Burnley 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Burnley's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.18 PPG, Burnley 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights