Cardiff 1-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Burnley (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cardiff face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 35 as Cardiff welcome Burnley to Cardiff City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 4 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cardiff at Cardiff City Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.00 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 10 clean sheets from 10 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Burnley have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.10 conceded per game. 9 away clean sheets from 10 games (90%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Burnley's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cardiff's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cardiff, 2 for Burnley and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 0–5 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Burnley trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 47% versus Burnley 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 44% | Burnley 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 0.60 xG and Burnley 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.919 / defence 1.027 | Burnley attack 1.023 / defence 0.485. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.033. Burnley's defence strength of 0.485 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 80 Cardiff games / 34 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 20% | Draw 33% | Burnley 47%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 5.00 | Draw 3.03 | Burnley 2.13. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Cardiff's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 50% | Burnley 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 20% | Draw 33% | Burnley 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 30% | xG Cardiff 0.60 / Burnley 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.919 / def 1.027 | Burnley attack 1.023 / def 0.485 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Burnley (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.60
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Burnley xG
30%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Burnley kick off?
Cardiff vs Burnley kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 4 March 2025 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Burnley?
Cardiff 1 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Cardiff vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Burnley part of?
Cardiff vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 20% chance of winning, Burnley a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Cardiff and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 2W.
What form are Cardiff and Burnley in?
Cardiff (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Burnley (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 0.92x the league average against Burnley's defence at 0.48x — combine the two and it projects 0.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (18.5%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
20%
5.03
33%
2.99
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.60
Cardiff xG
Total xG
1.69
1.08
Burnley xG
5.03
20%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.30
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
55%
1.83
Win to Nil
7%
14.87
26%
3.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 20.1 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.60 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.08 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 23W 16D 33L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 23W 23D 26L from 72 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.18 PPG, Burnley on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 1.33 PPG from 36 outings (14W 6D 16L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 12W 11D 13L from 36 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.17 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Burnley in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 23W 16D 33L in their last 72 games (1.18 PPG), while Burnley have gone 23W 23D 26L in their last 72 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Burnley away?
Cardiff's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.33 PPG; Burnley away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Burnley in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Burnley have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Burnley won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cardiff
1
Draws
3
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, Burnley have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Cardiff 1-2 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Burnley see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 39%, Burnley 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cardiff) and 42% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 36%; Cardiff have failed to score in 36% of games; Burnley in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Cardiff's recent matches and 44% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cardiff's recent games and 42% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Burnley tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Burnley in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Cardiff 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Cardiff 1-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 0.60 xG and Burnley 1.08 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Burnley attack 1.02 / defence 0.48, drawn from 80/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 20% | Draw 33% | Burnley 47%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 44%, Burnley 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.18 PPG, Burnley 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.