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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Oxford United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Oxford United 1-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.96 xG and Oxford United 0.43 xG, a combined 1.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.63 / defence 0.61 against Oxford United attack 0.67 / defence 1.11, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 47% | Draw 38% | Oxford United 15%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 41% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 22% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 43%, Oxford United 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Oxford United's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.21 PPG, Oxford United 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Oxford United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights