Burnley 2-1 Reading – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Burnley at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Reading encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 18 as Burnley welcome Reading to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reading — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reading, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reading have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Burnley carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Reading trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 53% versus Reading 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 34% | Reading 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.94 xG and Reading 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.162 / defence 0.882 | Reading attack 0.839 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.130. Reading bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Burnley games / 62 Reading games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 63% | Draw 21% | Reading 15%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Reading 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Burnley (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 70% | Reading 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Reading | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 63% | Draw 21% | Reading 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Burnley 1.94 / Reading 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.162 / def 0.882 | Reading attack 0.839 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Burnley (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Reading xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Reading kick off?
Burnley vs Reading kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Reading?
Burnley 2 - 1 Reading.
Where is Burnley vs Reading being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Reading part of?
Burnley vs Reading is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Reading?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 63% chance of winning, Reading a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Reading?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Burnley and Reading will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Reading have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Reading?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Reading in?
Burnley (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Reading (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Burnley's attack rating (1.16) and Reading's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reading's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.70
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.77
0.84
Reading xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
2%
44.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Reading?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Reading expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Burnley and 0.84 for Reading, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Reading?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burnley come into this having played 55 games, going 15W 22D 18L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reading sit at 1.18 PPG from 55 outings (19W 8D 28L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Reading is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.22 PPG, Reading on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burnley's home form reads 9W 10D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Reading have taken 1.00 points per game from 27 outings (8W 3D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Reading are on 1.09 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Reading
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Reading in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 15W 22D 18L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Reading have gone 19W 8D 28L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Reading away?
Burnley's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.37 PPG; Reading away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Reading runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Reading
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Reading?
From 2 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Reading have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Reading last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Reading 0-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Reading?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Reading are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 48%, Reading 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Burnley) and 56% (Reading).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 30% of games; Reading in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Reading away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Reading?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Burnley's recent matches and 44% of Reading's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Reading usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Burnley's recent games and 56% of Reading's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Reading tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Reading in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Reading 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Reading 2-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.94 xG and Reading 0.84 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against Reading attack 0.84 / defence 1.26, drawn from 17/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 63% | Draw 21% | Reading 15%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 34%, Reading 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Reading's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.22 PPG, Reading 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.