🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 20, as Burnley and Derby drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.36 xG and Derby 0.62 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.88 / defence 0.70 against Derby attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 53% | Draw 31% | Derby 16%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 46%, Derby 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Derby's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights