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Poisson rates Burnley at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Derby encounter.

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Match Analysis

Burnley host Derby at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 10 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Burnley — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor.

Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Derby's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Burnley are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Trading Patterns

Burnley in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Derby in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 51% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 46% | Derby 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.36 xG and Derby 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.880 / defence 0.702 | Derby attack 0.850 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.041. Burnley's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 19 Burnley games / 19 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Burnley 53% | Draw 31% | Derby 16%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Derby 6.25. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 40% | Derby 70%.

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