Burnley vs Charlton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 10 as Burnley welcome Charlton to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Charlton have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Charlton's 1.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burnley register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charlton in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Charlton trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 62% and Charlton 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 52% | Charlton 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.27 xG and Charlton 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.943 / defence 1.240 | Charlton attack 0.996 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.297. Data: 3 Burnley games / 49 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 28% | Draw 30% | Charlton 43%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 60% | Charlton 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 28% | Draw 30% | Charlton 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Burnley 1.27 / Charlton 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.943 / def 1.240 | Charlton attack 0.996 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Charlton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Charlton xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Charlton kick off?
Burnley vs Charlton is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Charlton part of?
Burnley vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 28% chance of winning, Charlton a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Burnley and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Charlton in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
28%
3.62
30%
3.35
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.87
1.60
Charlton xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
6%
17.98
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Burnley and 1.60 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Burnley have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 4W 12D 26L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton's form line: 13W 12D 17L from 42 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Charlton are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 0.71 PPG from 21 outings (2W 9D 10L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 4W 9D 8L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.00 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Charlton in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 4W 12D 26L in their last 42 games (0.57 PPG), while Charlton have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.71 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 48%, Charlton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Burnley) and 38% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Burnley's recent matches and 62% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Burnley's recent games and 38% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Charlton tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Charlton in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.