QPR 4-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 10 as QPR welcome Derby to Loftus Road. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, QPR have posted 3W 3D 4L at Loftus Road — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
QPR carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. QPR register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derby in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for QPR, 3 for Derby and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Derby in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — QPR 64% and Derby 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 60% | Derby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.25 xG and Derby 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.853 / defence 1.007 | Derby attack 0.944 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.276. Data: 55 QPR games / 55 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 37% | Draw 28% | Derby 35%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Derby 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 37% | Draw 28% | Derby 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG QPR 1.25 / Derby 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.853 / def 1.007 | Derby attack 0.944 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: QPR (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Derby xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Derby kick off?
QPR vs Derby kicked off at 18:45 on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Derby?
QPR 4 - 1 Derby.
Where is QPR vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Derby part of?
QPR vs Derby is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 37% chance of winning, Derby a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both QPR and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?
Record (6 meetings): QPR 3W | Draws 0 | Derby 3W.
What form are QPR and Derby in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
QPR's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
37%
2.70
28%
3.56
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
QPR xG
Total xG
2.47
1.21
Derby xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are QPR and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for QPR and 1.21 for Derby, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, QPR have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 15D 21L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 21W 12D 22L from 55 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.31 PPG, Derby on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L).
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 4D 12L from 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
QPR are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.36 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Derby in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Derby in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Derby away?
QPR's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.41 PPG; Derby away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between QPR and Derby runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 14 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2025, when QPR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Derby specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
QPR
0
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?
From 7 meetings on record, QPR have won 4, Derby have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2026, when QPR 4-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Derby?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — QPR at 70%, Derby at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for QPR and 63% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of QPR's games and 63% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of QPR's matches and 63% of Derby's.
Do QPR and Derby tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Derby in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant QPR run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Derby 4-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.25 xG and Derby 1.21 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Derby attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 37% | Draw 28% | Derby 35%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 60%, Derby 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.31 PPG, Derby 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.