Burnley vs Wolves – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 39%, yet in-form Wolves provide a compelling counter-argument — this Burnley vs Wolves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 11 as Burnley welcome Wolves to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 0W 6D 4L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wolves — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Wolves have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolves's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolves — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Burnley, 1 for Wolves and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wolves trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 62% versus Wolves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 52% | Wolves 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.77 xG and Wolves 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.893 / defence 1.152 | Wolves attack 1.086 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Wolves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Burnley games / 4 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 39% | Draw 28% | Wolves 33%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Wolves 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolves (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 60% | Wolves 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Wolves | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 39% | Draw 28% | Wolves 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG Burnley 1.77 / Wolves 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.893 / def 1.152 | Wolves attack 1.086 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Burnley (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Wolves xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Wolves kick off?
Burnley vs Wolves is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Wolves part of?
Burnley vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 39% chance of winning, Wolves a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Burnley and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
Record (6 meetings): Burnley 2W | Draws 3 | Wolves 1W.
What form are Burnley and Wolves in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Wolves (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.89x the league average against Wolves's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolves's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.59
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.40
1.63
Wolves xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
6%
17.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Burnley and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Burnley and 1.63 for Wolves, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley come into this having played 42 games, going 4W 12D 26L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 0.64 PPG from 42 outings (5W 12D 25L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wolves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 0.57 PPG, Wolves on 0.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Burnley's home form reads 2W 9D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 0.43 points per game from 21 outings (1W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 0.90 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Wolves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Wolves in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 4W 12D 26L in their last 42 games (0.57 PPG), while Wolves have gone 5W 12D 25L in their last 42 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Wolves away?
Burnley's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.71 PPG; Wolves away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Burnley's record when hosting Wolves specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burnley
3
Draws
1
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Wolves have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Burnley 1-1 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Wolves?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wolves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 48%, Wolves 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Burnley) and 48% (Wolves).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 43% of games; Wolves in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Burnley's recent matches and 43% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Burnley's recent games and 48% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Wolves tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Wolves in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.