Hull City 1-1 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Blackpool at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Blackpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus Blackpool in Championship, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Monday 26 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The MKM Stadium this season.
Blackpool (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Blackpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackpool away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Hull City against 0.90 for Blackpool. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Hull City 1W, Blackpool 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Hull City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Blackpool half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 39% versus Blackpool 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 39% | Blackpool 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.13 xG and Blackpool 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.824 / defence 1.300 | Blackpool attack 0.938 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.170. Data: 69 Hull City games / 69 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 30% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 44%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Blackpool 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Blackpool at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackpool if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Blackpool 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Blackpool | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 30% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Hull City 1.13 / Blackpool 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.824 / def 1.300 | Blackpool attack 0.938 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Blackpool (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Blackpool xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Blackpool kick off?
Hull City vs Blackpool kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Blackpool?
Hull City 1 - 1 Blackpool.
Where is Hull City vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Blackpool part of?
Hull City vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 30% chance of winning, Blackpool a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Blackpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hull City and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Blackpool?
Record (3 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 1 | Blackpool 1W.
What form are Hull City and Blackpool in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Blackpool (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.82x the league average against Blackpool's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (0.94x) against Hull City's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackpool Win
30%
3.34
26%
3.80
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.56
1.43
Blackpool xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
7%
13.92
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hull City and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Hull City and 1.43 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City come into this having played 69 games, going 21W 14D 34L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackpool sit at 1.22 PPG from 69 outings (22W 18D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Blackpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Hull City against 1.22 for Blackpool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hull City's home form reads 11W 5D 19L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackpool have taken 1.06 points per game from 35 outings (8W 13D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.14 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Blackpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 21W 14D 34L in their last 69 games (1.12 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 22W 18D 29L in their last 69 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Blackpool away?
Hull City's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.09 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Blackpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hull City
2
Draws
1
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Blackpool?
From 4 meetings on record, Hull City have won 1, Blackpool have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2022, when Hull City 1-1 Blackpool.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 43%, Blackpool 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hull City) and 43% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Blackpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Hull City's recent matches and 63% of Blackpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hull City's recent games and 43% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Blackpool tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Blackpool in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Blackpool share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Hull City and Blackpool drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.13 xG and Blackpool 1.43 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.82 / defence 1.30 against Blackpool attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 30% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 44%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 39%, Blackpool 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Blackpool's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.12 PPG, Blackpool 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.