Bristol City vs Burnley – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Burnley defy the odds to beat Bristol City 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Bristol City 0-1 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 0.89 xG and Burnley 0.89 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bristol City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Burnley attack 0.85 / defence 0.72, drawn from 61/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol City 32% | Draw 36% | Burnley 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 42%, Burnley 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol City's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burnley's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bristol City arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights