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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Bristol City take on Burnley.

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Analysis

Burnley make the trip to Ashton Gate Stadium to face Bristol City in Championship, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.

Form

Bristol City (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bristol City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bristol City have posted 4W 5D 1L at Ashton Gate Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Championship this season, Burnley have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Bristol City against 1.70 for Burnley. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bristol City 0W, Burnley 2W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Burnley winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bristol City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bristol City 49% versus Burnley 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bristol City 42% | Burnley 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bristol City 0.89 xG and Burnley 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bristol City attack 0.941 / defence 1.045 | Burnley attack 0.853 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.002. Burnley's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Bristol City games / 15 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bristol City 32% | Draw 36% | Burnley 32%. Fair-value odds: Bristol City 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Burnley 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bristol City 60% | Burnley 40%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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