Blackburn 0-1 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackburn vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Blackburn and Ipswich meet at Ewood Park in Championship (matchday 39). This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Blackburn's record over their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Blackburn have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ipswich have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ipswich have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Ipswich arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Blackburn, 1 for Ipswich and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 7.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Blackburn 3–4 Ipswich — a Ipswich win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Blackburn half-time and goal-timing data (last 84 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (last 84 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 52% versus Ipswich 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 54% | Ipswich 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.32 xG and Ipswich 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.973 / defence 1.158 | Ipswich attack 1.093 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.212. Data: built from Blackburn's last 84 games and Ipswich's last 38.
Result probabilities: Blackburn 33% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 42%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 3.06 | Draw 4.02 | Ipswich 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Blackburn's last 10 home games and Ipswich's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Blackburn 90% (last 10 home games) | Ipswich 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, matchday 39 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 33% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Blackburn 1.32 / Ipswich 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.973 / def 1.158 | Ipswich attack 1.093 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Ipswich xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Blackburn vs Ipswich FAQs
What time does Blackburn vs Ipswich kick off?
Blackburn vs Ipswich kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Ipswich?
Blackburn 0 - 1 Ipswich.
Where is Blackburn vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Ipswich part of?
Blackburn vs Ipswich is a Championship fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 33% chance of winning, Ipswich a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Blackburn and Ipswich will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Blackburn vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Blackburn's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Ipswich's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.09x) against Blackburn's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from Blackburn's last 84 games and Ipswich's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
33%
3.06
25%
4.02
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.85
1.53
Ipswich xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
7%
14.17
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Blackburn vs Ipswich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.53 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Blackburn come into this having played 84 games, going 31W 18D 35L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Ipswich sit at 2.13 PPG from 84 outings (52W 23D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Blackburn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Blackburn's home form reads 19W 9D 14L across their last 42 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Ipswich have taken 1.88 points per game from their last 42 away games (22W 13D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Blackburn are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.15 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
Blackburn (Home) vs Ipswich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Blackburn
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Blackburn vs Ipswich Form FAQs
What form are Blackburn and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 31W 18D 35L in their last 84 games (1.32 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 52W 23D 9L in their last 84 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.57 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Ipswich in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Blackburn and Ipswich, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ipswich won Ipswich 3-0 Blackburn on 17 Jan 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Blackburn have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Blackburn
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Blackburn vs Ipswich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Ipswich?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Blackburn have won 0, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Ipswich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Ipswich 3-0 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 60%, Ipswich 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Blackburn) and 50% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Blackburn vs Ipswich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Blackburn and Ipswich matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Blackburn's recent matches and 50% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Blackburn and Ipswich matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Blackburn's recent games and 50% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Ipswich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Blackburn's recent matches and 74% of Ipswich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Blackburn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.32 xG and Ipswich 1.53 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Ipswich attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 84/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 33% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 42%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 54%, Ipswich 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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