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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Birmingham edge out QPR 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Birmingham beat QPR 1-0 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.58 xG and QPR 1.00 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. QPR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against QPR attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Birmingham 50% | Draw 28% | QPR 23%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 46%, QPR 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Birmingham's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

QPR's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights