Draw No Bet Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest draw no bet probability — Sunday 1 October 2023
Draw No Bet backs a side to win, with the stake returned if the match is drawn. Our prediction model takes the side's win probability as a share of all decisive results, ignoring the draw. Only selections at 70%+ probability are shown.
20 matches cleared our threshold on Sunday 1 October 2023. Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia (Aris Thessalonikis (draw no bet)) led the list at 93% in the Super League 1. The shortlist runs from 93% down to 75%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
The shortlist spans eight different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.
Of the 17 fixtures on this list that have since finished, twelve landed the draw no bet market — 71%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Super League 1 · Greece
Aris Thessalonikis (draw no bet)
93%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Sirius (draw no bet)
87%
La Liga · Spain
Atletico Madrid (draw no bet)
87%
Serie B · Italy
Parma (draw no bet)
84%
Primera División · Chile
Colo Colo (draw no bet)
83%
Serie A · Italy
AS Roma (draw no bet)
83%
Serie A · Italy
Bologna (draw no bet)
82%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
BK Hacken (draw no bet)
80%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
Chonburi FC (draw no bet)
80%
Eredivisie · Netherlands
AZ Alkmaar (draw no bet)
79%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Arouca (draw no bet)
78%
Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
Mlada Boleslav (draw no bet)
78%
Süper Lig · Turkey
Adana Demirspor (draw no bet)
78%
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
VVV Venlo (draw no bet)
77%
Primera División · Chile
Union Espanola (draw no bet)
77%
Super League · Switzerland
FC Basel 1893 (draw no bet)
77%
Eliteserien · Norway
Bodo/Glimt (draw no bet)
77%
Canadian Premier League · Canada
Atlético Ottawa (draw no bet)
75%
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Union St. Gilloise (draw no bet)
75%
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Gent (draw no bet)
75%
Showing top 20 fixtures by draw no bet probability (a 70% or higher draw no bet probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsDraw No Bet — common questions
What does the Draw No Bet market mean?
Draw No Bet settles on whether a match is won by the selected side, with the stake returned if it ends level. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate draw no bet probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The draw no bet probability shown here is the selected side's win probability divided by the chance the match has a winner at all, since a draw returns the stake. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Draw No Bet on Sunday 1 October 2023?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia (Aris Thessalonikis (draw no bet)) at 93% draw no bet probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 70% or higher draw no bet probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these draw no bet predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.