České Budějovice 2-3 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and FK Jablonec meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, České Budějovice have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FK Jablonec's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, FK Jablonec are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from České Budějovice's last 10 home games and FK Jablonec's last 10 away games) — České Budějovice have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, FK Jablonec in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 3 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2024, ended České Budějovice 0–5 FK Jablonec — a FK Jablonec win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 48% versus FK Jablonec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 61% | FK Jablonec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 0.71 xG and FK Jablonec 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.508 / defence 1.297 | FK Jablonec attack 1.015 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.139. České Budějovice's attack rating of 0.508 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.297 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FK Jablonec's projected output up. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 51 games and FK Jablonec's last 51.
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 18% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 56%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 5.68 | Draw 3.82 | FK Jablonec 1.78. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (České Budějovice's last 10 home games and FK Jablonec's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 10% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 18% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG České Budějovice 0.71 / FK Jablonec 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.508 / def 1.297 | FK Jablonec attack 1.015 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FK Jablonec xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
České Budějovice 2 - 3 FK Jablonec.
Where is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec part of?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 18% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both České Budějovice and FK Jablonec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.51) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.01x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from České Budějovice's last 51 games and FK Jablonec's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
18%
5.68
26%
3.82
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.21
1.50
FK Jablonec xG
5.68
18%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
4%
25.41
28%
3.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.50 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 0.66 PPG on a 8W 13D 35L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
FK Jablonec's form line: 19W 17D 20L from 56 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, FK Jablonec are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.11 PPG from their last 27 home games (8W 6D 13L). That's noticeably better than their 0.66 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 9D 13L from their last 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FK Jablonec's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.43 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
České Budějovice (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
České Budějovice
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 13D 35L in their last 56 games (0.66 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 19W 17D 20L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or FK Jablonec away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.11 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.89 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won FK Jablonec 5-0 České Budějovice on 4 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
2
Draws
4
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, České Budějovice have won 3, FK Jablonec have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2025: České Budějovice 2-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 37%, FK Jablonec 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (České Budějovice) and 41% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 52% of games; FK Jablonec in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in České Budějovice and FK Jablonec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 44% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of České Budějovice's recent games and 41% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 63% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out České Budějovice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat České Budějovice 2-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.71 xG and FK Jablonec 1.50 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.51 / defence 1.30 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 18% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 56%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 61%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.66. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.