Plzen 2-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Karviná travel to Doosan Aréna to take on Plzen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 4W 0D 0L from 4 Czech Liga matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 0.75 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karviná — All Games: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 2.50 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Karviná in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Plzen 75% and Karviná 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 75% | Karviná 50%). Note also that Karviná surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Plzen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.63 xG and Karviná 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.103 / defence 1.097 | Karviná attack 0.807 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.364. Data: 4 Plzen games / 4 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 47% | Draw 24% | Karviná 28%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Karviná 3.57. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 75% | Karviná 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 47% | Draw 24% | Karviná 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Plzen 1.63 / Karviná 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.103 / def 1.097 | Karviná attack 0.807 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Plzen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Karviná xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Karviná kick off?
Plzen vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Karviná?
Plzen 2 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Plzen vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Karviná part of?
Plzen vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 47% chance of winning, Karviná a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plzen and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Karviná?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Karviná in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-0D-0L in 4 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-W-W-W. Karviná (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Karviná's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.08
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.83
1.21
Karviná xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
6%
17.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Plzen and 1.21 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 4 games, going 4W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.50 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Karviná in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Karviná
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Karviná in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 games (3.00 PPG), while Karviná have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Karviná runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Plzen have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Plzen
1
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Karviná have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Karviná 0-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Karviná?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Plzen at 75%, Karviná at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Plzen and 50% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Plzen's games and 75% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Plzen's matches and 50% of Karviná's.
Do Plzen and Karviná tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Karviná in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Karviná 2-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.63 xG and Karviná 1.21 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Karviná landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.10 / defence 1.10 against Karviná attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 47% | Draw 24% | Karviná 28%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 75%, Karviná 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Karviná managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.