Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sigma Olomouc (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zlin face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letna: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sigma Olomouc — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Zlin have won 2, Sigma Olomouc 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 5–0 with Zlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (40 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (40 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 52% versus Sigma Olomouc 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 52% | Sigma Olomouc 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 0.98 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.690 / defence 1.035 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.895 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Zlin's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Zlin games / 36 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 29% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 43%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Sigma Olomouc 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Zlin 40% | Sigma Olomouc 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 29% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Zlin 0.98 / Sigma Olomouc 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.690 / def 1.035 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.895 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sigma Olomouc xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stadion Letna.
Where is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 29% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Zlin and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (8 meetings): Zlin 2W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 4W.
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.69x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
29%
3.46
28%
3.52
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.25
1.26
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.4 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Zlin and 1.26 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 10W 8D 22L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 18W 8D 14L from 40 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sigma Olomouc are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L).
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 8W 3D 10L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.38 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 10W 8D 22L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 8D 14L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.19 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2025, when Zlin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Zlin
2
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 52%, Sigma Olomouc 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Zlin) and 62% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin have failed to score in 29% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Zlin's games and 62% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Zlin's matches and 62% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Zlin and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.