Slavia Praha 1-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sinobo Stadium plays host to Slavia Praha versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slavia Praha have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha at Sinobo Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Slavia Praha's 2.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mlada Boleslav's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Slavia Praha have had the better of this match-up — 8 wins from 9 meetings, with Mlada Boleslav managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 4–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
The historical record gives Slavia Praha a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 56% versus Mlada Boleslav 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 60% | Mlada Boleslav 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.19 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.309 / defence 0.817 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.886 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.183. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Slavia Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Slavia Praha games / 41 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 67% | Draw 20% | Mlada Boleslav 13%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Mlada Boleslav 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 60% | Mlada Boleslav 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 67% | Draw 20% | Mlada Boleslav 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG Slavia Praha 2.19 / Mlada Boleslav 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.309 / def 0.817 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.886 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Mlada Boleslav xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Slavia Praha 1 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 67% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (9 meetings): Slavia Praha 8W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.31) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.89x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
67%
1.49
20%
4.99
13%
7.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.05
0.86
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
7.87
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
11%
8.96
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
1%
70.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.86 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slavia Praha come into this having played 45 games, going 32W 11D 2L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.31 PPG from 45 outings (15W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Slavia Praha's home form reads 18W 5D 0L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (6W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.42 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 32W 11D 2L in their last 45 games (2.38 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.57 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 4-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 8, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Slavia Praha 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 52%, Mlada Boleslav 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Slavia Praha and 61% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 52% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Slavia Praha's matches and 61% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 1-1 at Sinobo Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.19 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.86 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slavia Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.31 / defence 0.82 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.89 / defence 1.25, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 67% | Draw 20% | Mlada Boleslav 13%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 60%, Mlada Boleslav 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.