Teplice 5-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
České Budějovice make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
České Budějovice have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, České Budějovice have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Teplice. A 0.80 PPG lead over České Budějovice (1.00 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Teplice's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) — Teplice have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, České Budějovice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Teplice, 2 for České Budějovice and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended Teplice 2–2 České Budějovice — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 53% versus České Budějovice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 49% | České Budějovice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 2.01 xG and České Budějovice 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.925 / defence 1.392 | České Budějovice attack 0.822 / defence 1.551. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.146. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.551 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Teplice's defence rating of 1.392 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing České Budějovice's projected output up. Data: built from Teplice's last 43 games and České Budějovice's last 43.
Result probabilities: Teplice 52% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 23%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.94 | Draw 3.89 | České Budějovice 4.38. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 80% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 52% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Teplice 2.01 / České Budějovice 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.925 / def 1.392 | České Budějovice attack 0.822 / def 1.551 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Teplice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.31
České Budějovice xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs České Budějovice FAQs
What time does Teplice vs České Budějovice kick off?
Teplice vs České Budějovice kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Teplice 5 - 2 České Budějovice.
Where is Teplice vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs České Budějovice part of?
Teplice vs České Budějovice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 52% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Teplice and České Budějovice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Teplice vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.93x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.82x) against Teplice's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 43 games and České Budějovice's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.89
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.32
1.31
České Budějovice xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
13%
7.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
3%
32.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs České Budějovice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Teplice and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Teplice and 1.31 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 47 games, going 14W 10D 23L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 0.74 PPG from 47 outings (8W 11D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Teplice against 0.74 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 6W 7D 9L across their last 22 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.27 points per game from their last 22 away games (0W 6D 16L). That's a step down from their 0.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.94 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs České Budějovice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Teplice vs České Budějovice Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 14W 10D 23L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 11D 28L in their last 47 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or České Budějovice away?
Teplice's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.14 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Teplice and České Budějovice, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Teplice
2
Draws
2
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs České Budějovice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and České Budějovice?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 5, České Budějovice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and České Budějovice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2025: České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and České Budějovice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 59%, České Budějovice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Teplice) and 64% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs České Budějovice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and České Budějovice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Teplice's games and 59% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Teplice and České Budějovice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Teplice's recent games and 64% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and České Budějovice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Teplice's recent matches and 77% of České Budějovice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Teplice run riot with a 5-2 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat České Budějovice 5-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 2.01 xG and České Budějovice 1.31 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 1.39 against České Budějovice attack 0.82 / defence 1.55, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 52% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 23%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 49%, České Budějovice 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.11 PPG, České Budějovice 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.