Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.60 for Sparta Praha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Sparta Praha have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Mlada Boleslav's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 0–5 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Sparta Praha 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Sparta Praha 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.07 xG and Sparta Praha 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.947 / defence 0.916 | Sparta Praha attack 1.247 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.155. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Mlada Boleslav games / 43 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 28% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 39%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Sparta Praha 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mlada Boleslav 40% | Sparta Praha 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 28% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.07 / Sparta Praha 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.947 / def 0.916 | Sparta Praha attack 1.247 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sparta Praha xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Mlada Boleslav 2 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 28% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha?
Record (6 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 1W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 4W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (0.95) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.25x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
28%
3.64
33%
3.03
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.39
1.32
Sparta Praha xG
3.64
28%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.61
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.32 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 13D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.33 PPG from 48 outings (35W 7D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 2.30 points per game from 23 outings (17W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.21 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 60%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 35W 7D 6L in their last 48 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.52 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.30 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Praha have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-5 on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 61%, Sparta Praha 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Mlada Boleslav and 65% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 30%; Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 61% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 65% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 15, as Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.07 xG and Sparta Praha 1.32 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Sparta Praha attack 1.25 / defence 0.79, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 28% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 39%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Sparta Praha 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.