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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Teplice 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.90 xG and Sparta Praha 1.29 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Sparta Praha attack 1.13 / defence 0.77, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 24% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 44%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Sparta Praha 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights