Teplice 2-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Teplice at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Teplice, 1.20 for Slovan Liberec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 59% versus Slovan Liberec 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 55% | Slovan Liberec 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.54 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.885 / defence 0.907 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.019 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 28%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Slovan Liberec 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Slovan Liberec 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Teplice 1.54 / Slovan Liberec 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.885 / def 0.907 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.019 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Teplice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Slovan Liberec xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Teplice 2 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 44% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Teplice and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
Record (3 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 1 | Slovan Liberec 0W.
What form are Teplice and Slovan Liberec in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.02x) against Teplice's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.63
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.73
1.19
Slovan Liberec xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
6%
16.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Teplice and 1.19 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice come into this having played 64 games, going 20W 17D 27L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.31 PPG from 64 outings (22W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Teplice against 1.31 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Teplice's home form reads 12W 13D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 0.97 points per game from 32 outings (7W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.52 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 20W 17D 27L in their last 64 games (1.20 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 22W 18D 24L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Teplice's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.53 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 3-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Teplice
3
Draws
1
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 6, Slovan Liberec have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Slovan Liberec 0-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 53%, Slovan Liberec 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Teplice) and 59% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 28% of games; Slovan Liberec in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Teplice's games and 62% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Teplice's recent games and 59% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slovan Liberec 2-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.54 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.19 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 44% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 28%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 55%, Slovan Liberec 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.20 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.