Teplice 2-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face Slovan Liberec.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga (Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Teplice at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Slovan Liberec's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Teplice, 1.20 for Slovan Liberec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Teplice edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended Teplice 2–0 Slovan Liberec — a Teplice win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 59% versus Slovan Liberec 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 55% | Slovan Liberec 58%). Note also that Slovan Liberec surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.54 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.885 / defence 0.907 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.019 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: built from Teplice's last 60 games and Slovan Liberec's last 60.
Result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 28%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.26 | Draw 3.63 | Slovan Liberec 3.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 50% (last 10 home games) | Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Teplice 1.54 / Slovan Liberec 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.885 / def 0.907 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.019 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Teplice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Slovan Liberec xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Slovan Liberec FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Teplice 2 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec is a Czech Liga fixture (Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 44% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Teplice and Slovan Liberec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Teplice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.02x) against Teplice's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 60 games and Slovan Liberec's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.63
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.73
1.19
Slovan Liberec xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
6%
16.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Slovan Liberec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Teplice and 1.19 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice come into this having played 64 games, going 20W 17D 27L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.31 PPG from 64 outings (22W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Teplice against 1.31 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Teplice's home form reads 12W 13D 7L across their last 32 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 32 away games (7W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.52 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Teplice (Home) vs Slovan Liberec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Current Season
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
❓ Teplice vs Slovan Liberec Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 20W 17D 27L in their last 64 games (1.20 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 22W 18D 24L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Teplice's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.53 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won Slovan Liberec 3-0 Teplice on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Teplice
3
Draws
1
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Slovan Liberec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 6, Slovan Liberec have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Slovan Liberec 0-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 53%, Slovan Liberec 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Teplice) and 59% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 28% of games; Slovan Liberec in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Slovan Liberec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Slovan Liberec matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Teplice's games and 62% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Teplice and Slovan Liberec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Teplice's recent games and 59% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovan Liberec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Teplice's recent matches and 75% of Slovan Liberec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slovan Liberec 2-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.54 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.19 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 44% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 28%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 55%, Slovan Liberec 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.20 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.