Slovan Liberec 1-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Stadion u Nisy to face Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadion u Nisy this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion u Nisy. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at Stadion u Nisy than their overall form suggests.
Teplice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.20 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 3 for Teplice and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 58% versus Teplice 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 57% | Teplice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 2.28 xG and Teplice 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.192 / defence 0.908 | Teplice attack 0.843 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Slovan Liberec games / 60 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 66% | Draw 20% | Teplice 14%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Teplice 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 50% | Teplice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 66% | Draw 20% | Teplice 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG Slovan Liberec 2.28 / Teplice 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.192 / def 0.908 | Teplice attack 0.843 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Teplice xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 66% chance of winning, Teplice a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Record (5 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 1 | Teplice 3W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Teplice in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.84x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.92
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
3.27
0.99
Teplice xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
10%
9.79
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
1%
69.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.99 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 65 games, going 22W 18D 25L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.23 PPG from 65 outings (21W 17D 27L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.23 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 15W 8D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.88 points per game from 32 outings (8W 4D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.17 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 22W 18D 25L in their last 65 games (1.29 PPG), while Teplice have gone 21W 17D 27L in their last 65 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Teplice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.66 PPG; Teplice away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 5-1 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Teplice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Slovan Liberec 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 56%, Teplice 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Slovan Liberec and 75% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Slovan Liberec's games and 66% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 75% of Teplice's.
Do Slovan Liberec and Teplice tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Teplice in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slovan Liberec 1-2 at Stadion u Nisy, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 2.28 xG and Teplice 0.99 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Teplice outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.19 / defence 0.91 against Teplice attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 66% | Draw 20% | Teplice 14%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Teplice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 57%, Teplice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.29 PPG, Teplice 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.