Hradec Králové 3-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals as Hradec Králové welcome Sigma Olomouc to Malšovická Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hradec Králové's home record at Malšovická Aréna: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hradec Králové register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sigma Olomouc in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hradec Králové, 1 for Sigma Olomouc and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Sigma Olomouc 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 47% | Sigma Olomouc 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.58 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.947 / defence 0.878 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.014 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 Hradec Králové games / 60 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 26%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Sigma Olomouc 3.85. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 60% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Hradec Králové 1.58 / Sigma Olomouc 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.947 / def 0.878 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.014 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Sigma Olomouc xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové 3 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 46% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (4 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.95x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.66
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.73
1.15
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
5%
18.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.15 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 22W 16D 26L from 64 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 24L across 64 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.28 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 13W 6D 13L from 32 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 10W 10D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.41 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 22W 16D 26L in their last 64 games (1.28 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 19D 24L in their last 64 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.41 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 53%, Sigma Olomouc 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hradec Králové) and 50% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Hradec Králové's games and 59% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 50% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Sigma Olomouc 3-1 at Malšovická Aréna, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.58 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.15 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.88 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 26%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 47%, Sigma Olomouc 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.28 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.