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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Teplice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Teplice 1-3 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.56 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.81 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 55% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 19%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Sigma Olomouc 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.21 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights