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Stalemate at Teplice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice and Dukla Praha finished level at 0-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.44 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Teplice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Dukla Praha attack 0.68 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 52% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 20%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Dukla Praha 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.19 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights