Dukla Praha 2-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dukla Praha at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dukla Praha vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dukla Praha host Pardubice at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga (Relegation Round - 2). Kick-off is Saturday 3 May 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dukla Praha's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Pardubice have recorded 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Dukla Praha are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Dukla Praha, 0 for Pardubice and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Mar 2025, ended Dukla Praha 1–0 Pardubice — a Dukla Praha win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pardubice in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 52% versus Pardubice 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 48% | Pardubice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.32 xG and Pardubice 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.696 / defence 1.079 | Pardubice attack 0.752 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.203. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.696 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Pardubice's defence rating of 1.395 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dukla Praha's projected output up. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Dukla Praha's last 30 games and Pardubice's last 60.
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 44% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 27%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.26 | Draw 3.54 | Pardubice 3.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dukla Praha are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dukla Praha 70% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 44% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Dukla Praha 1.32 / Pardubice 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.696 / def 1.079 | Pardubice attack 0.752 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Dukla Praha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Pardubice xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Dukla Praha vs Pardubice kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Pardubice kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Dukla Praha 2 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Pardubice part of?
Dukla Praha vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (Relegation Round - 2) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 44% chance of winning, Pardubice a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dukla Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dukla Praha and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Dukla Praha vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.70) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dukla Praha's last 30 games and Pardubice's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dukla Praha Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.54
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.29
0.98
Pardubice xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dukla Praha vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 0.98 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dukla Praha come into this having played 31 games, going 5W 10D 16L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.61 PPG from 31 outings (4W 7D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dukla Praha on 0.81 PPG, Pardubice on 0.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dukla Praha's home form reads 3W 4D 8L across their last 15 home games, a 0.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.40 points per game from their last 15 away games (1W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dukla Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.71 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
Dukla Praha (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dukla Praha
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Dukla Praha vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Dukla Praha and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 5W 10D 16L in their last 31 games (0.81 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 4W 7D 20L in their last 31 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Pardubice away?
Dukla Praha's home record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 0.87 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
1
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Dukla Praha vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Pardubice?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Dukla Praha have won 3, Pardubice have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Dukla Praha 0-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Pardubice?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 60%, Pardubice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Dukla Praha) and 47% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 27% of games; Pardubice in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dukla Praha and Pardubice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 33% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dukla Praha and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 47% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 73% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dukla Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha beat Pardubice 2-0 at Stadion Juliska, Relegation Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.32 xG and Pardubice 0.98 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against Pardubice attack 0.75 / defence 1.40, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 44% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 27%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 48%, Pardubice 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.81 PPG, Pardubice 0.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dukla Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.