🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to epet ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at epet ARENA, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Hradec Králové — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Sparta Praha) versus 1.50 (Hradec Králové). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Praha: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Hradec Králové, with 1 draws across those contests.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Sparta Praha winning.

The historical record gives Sparta Praha a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 62% versus Hradec Králové 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 62% | Hradec Králové 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.44 xG and Hradec Králové 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.150 / defence 1.023 | Hradec Králové attack 0.915 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.167. Data: 50 Sparta Praha games / 50 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 45% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 29%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Hradec Králové 3.45. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Praha 80% | Hradec Králové 20%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights