Hradec Králové 4-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Teplice at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lokotrans Aréna.
Teplice — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hradec Králové at 1.40 PPG versus Teplice's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Teplice trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 53% versus Teplice 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Teplice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.60 xG and Teplice 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.780 / defence 0.697 | Teplice attack 0.936 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.355. Hradec Králové's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hradec Králové's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Hradec Králové games / 40 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 31% | Teplice 18%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Teplice 5.56. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 40% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 31% | Teplice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Hradec Králové 1.60 / Teplice 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.780 / def 0.697 | Teplice attack 0.936 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Teplice xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Teplice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Hradec Králové 4 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Teplice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 51% chance of winning, Teplice a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hradec Králové and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.78x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
51%
1.95
31%
3.22
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.49
0.88
Teplice xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
4%
28.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.88 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 14W 16D 15L from 45 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 23L across 45 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.29 PPG, Teplice on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 9W 8D 4L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.20 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 14W 16D 15L in their last 45 games (1.29 PPG), while Teplice have gone 12W 10D 23L in their last 45 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Teplice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.67 PPG; Teplice away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Hradec Králové won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 7, Teplice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 48%, Teplice 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hradec Králové) and 71% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Teplice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 52% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Hradec Králové's matches and 71% of Teplice's.
Do Hradec Králové and Teplice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Teplice in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Teplice 4-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.60 xG and Teplice 0.88 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.78 / defence 0.70 against Teplice attack 0.94 / defence 1.40, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 31% | Teplice 18%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 49%, Teplice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.29 PPG, Teplice 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.