Slovan Liberec 0-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slovan Liberec face Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hradec Králové travel to Stadion u Nisy to take on Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Slovan Liberec stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Slovan Liberec's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Hradec Králové have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slovan Liberec 1.20 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 1 for Hradec Králové and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended Slovan Liberec 0–0 Hradec Králové — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 56% versus Hradec Králové 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 53% | Hradec Králové 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.38 xG and Hradec Králové 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.189 / defence 1.130 | Hradec Králové attack 0.787 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.178. Hradec Králové's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 43 games and Hradec Králové's last 43.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 42% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 26%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.39 | Draw 3.12 | Hradec Králové 3.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 50% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 42% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.38 / Hradec Králové 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.189 / def 1.130 | Hradec Králové attack 0.787 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Hradec Králové xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 42% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 43 games and Hradec Králové's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
42%
2.39
32%
3.12
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.42
1.05
Hradec Králové xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.05 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 14D 17L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.40 PPG from 45 outings (17W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.24 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 10W 6D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 0.95 points per game from their last 22 away games (5W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.07 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 14D 17L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.64 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won Hradec Králové 0-4 Slovan Liberec.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Slovan Liberec 2-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 46%, Hradec Králové 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Slovan Liberec) and 32% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 36%; Hradec Králové in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 36% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 32% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 50% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovan Liberec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové finished level at 0-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.38 xG and Hradec Králové 1.05 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.19 / defence 1.13 against Hradec Králové attack 0.79 / defence 0.83, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 42% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 26%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 53%, Hradec Králové 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.24 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.