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Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovácko beat Pardubice 2-0 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.48 xG and Pardubice 1.72 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Pardubice attack 1.32 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 32% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 42%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, Pardubice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.

Pardubice's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 0.95 PPG, Pardubice 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights