🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Mlada Boleslav.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 4-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.09 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.08 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.42 / defence 0.91 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 60% | Draw 22% | Mlada Boleslav 18%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 53%, Mlada Boleslav 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.42 average — above their attacking norm. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights