Slavia Praha 1-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Slavia Praha welcome Hradec Králové to Fortuna Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Slavia Praha's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Fortuna Arena this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Slavia Praha, 2 for Hradec Králové and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 44% versus Hradec Králové 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 59% | Hradec Králové 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.16 xG and Hradec Králové 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.537 / defence 0.604 | Hradec Králové attack 0.962 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.222. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.537 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.604 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Slavia Praha games / 59 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 70% | Draw 20% | Hradec Králové 10%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Hradec Králové 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 40% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 70% | Draw 20% | Hradec Králové 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 46% | xG Slavia Praha 2.16 / Hradec Králové 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.537 / def 0.604 | Hradec Králové attack 0.962 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Hradec Králové xG
46%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Slavia Praha 1 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 70% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové?
Record (2 meetings): Slavia Praha 0W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.54) and Hradec Králové's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
70%
1.42
20%
5.12
10%
9.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.87
0.71
Hradec Králové xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
9.72
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
11%
8.70
Win to Nil
34%
2.90
1%
84.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.71 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slavia Praha come into this having played 64 games, going 44W 11D 9L for 2.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.27 PPG from 64 outings (21W 18D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Slavia Praha's home form reads 29W 1D 2L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.23 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.12 points per game from 32 outings (9W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.20 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 44W 11D 9L in their last 64 games (2.23 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.75 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slavia Praha
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 34%, Hradec Králové 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Slavia Praha and 53% for Hradec Králové. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 53% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Slavia Praha's matches and 53% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.16 xG and Hradec Králové 0.71 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slavia Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.54 / defence 0.60 against Hradec Králové attack 0.96 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 70% | Draw 20% | Hradec Králové 10%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 59%, Hradec Králové 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.