Slavia Praha 6-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 75% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Fortuna Arena to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Slavia Praha at Fortuna Arena this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Slavia Praha, 2.00 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Slavia Praha, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Bohemians 1905 — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slavia Praha and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 45% versus Bohemians 1905 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 58% | Bohemians 1905 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.64 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.456 / defence 0.635 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.080 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.456 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.635 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Slavia Praha games / 60 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 75% | Draw 17% | Bohemians 1905 9%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | Bohemians 1905 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 75% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 50% | Bohemians 1905 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 75% | Draw 17% | Bohemians 1905 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 54% | xG Slavia Praha 2.64 / Bohemians 1905 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.456 / def 0.635 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.080 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bohemians 1905 xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Slavia Praha 6 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 75% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Record (3 meetings): Slavia Praha 3W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.64. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.08x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
75%
1.34
17%
6.06
9%
11.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.50
0.86
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.06
17%
Draw
11.19
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
7%
14.03
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
1%
156.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.86 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 44W 12D 9L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 24W 15D 26L from 65 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.70 PPG from 33 outings (29W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.22 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 11W 7D 15L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.48 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.52 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 60%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 44W 12D 9L in their last 65 games (2.22 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 24W 15D 26L in their last 65 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.70 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Slavia Praha
0
Draws
0
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 10, Bohemians 1905 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Slavia Praha 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 36%, Bohemians 1905 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Slavia Praha and 64% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 61% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Slavia Praha's matches and 64% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 6-0 at Fortuna Arena, Championship Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.64 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.86 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.46 / defence 0.64 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 75% | Draw 17% | Bohemians 1905 9%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 58%, Bohemians 1905 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.91 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.