Sigma Olomouc 3-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice meet at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andruv stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Andruv stadion this season.
Pardubice (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pardubice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Sigma Olomouc 4W, Pardubice 2W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Pardubice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 56% and Pardubice 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 58% | Pardubice 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.49 xG and Pardubice 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.049 / defence 1.033 | Pardubice attack 0.949 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.395. Data: 34 Sigma Olomouc games / 34 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 35%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Pardubice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.49 / Pardubice 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.049 / def 1.033 | Pardubice attack 0.949 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Pardubice xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Sigma Olomouc 3 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 40% chance of winning, Pardubice a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 4W | Draws 3 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.05) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.95x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
40%
2.50
25%
3.95
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.85
1.37
Pardubice xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
8%
12.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.37 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 16W 7D 13L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice's form line: 12W 9D 15L from 36 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.25 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 7W 3D 7L from 17 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.25 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 69%.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 7D 13L in their last 36 games (1.53 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Pardubice away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.82 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 1-5 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 3-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 41%, Pardubice 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sigma Olomouc) and 59% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 65% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 59% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Pardubice 3-1 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.49 xG and Pardubice 1.37 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Pardubice attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 35%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 58%, Pardubice 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.53 PPG, Pardubice 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.