🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Slovácko travel to Andruv stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andruv stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Slovácko — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 0.90 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sigma Olomouc's 30% rate and Slovácko's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sigma Olomouc, 2 for Slovácko and 4 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 1–0 with Sigma Olomouc winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Slovácko in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 54% versus Slovácko 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Slovácko 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.59 xG and Slovácko 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.982 / defence 1.083 | Slovácko attack 0.900 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.188. Data: 58 Sigma Olomouc games / 58 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 26%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Slovácko 3.85. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 57% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.

Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sigma Olomouc 30% | Slovácko 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights