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Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Slovácko 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Slovácko 2-1 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.59 xG and Slovácko 1.16 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Slovácko attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 26%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 56%, Slovácko 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Slovácko's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Slovácko 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights