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Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.16 xG and Plzen 0.89 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 0.62 against Plzen attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 32% | Plzen 27%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 52%, Plzen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Plzen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights