Baník Ostrava 1-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Baník Ostrava) versus 1.90 (Sigma Olomouc). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Baník Ostrava, 3 for Sigma Olomouc and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 33% versus Sigma Olomouc 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 38% | Sigma Olomouc 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.17 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.802 / defence 1.091 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.997 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.402. Data: 34 Baník Ostrava games / 35 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 29% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 45%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 2.22. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 10% | Sigma Olomouc 90%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 29% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.17 / Sigma Olomouc 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.802 / def 1.091 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.997 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Sigma Olomouc xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 29% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (9 meetings): Baník Ostrava 4W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 3W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.80x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
29%
3.44
26%
3.90
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.69
1.52
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
6%
15.81
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.52 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 7D 21L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.59 PPG from 39 outings (18W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 7W 3D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (8W 3D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.41 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 11W 7D 21L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 8D 13L in their last 39 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.20 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Baník Ostrava 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 25%, Sigma Olomouc 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Baník Ostrava) and 65% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 50% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 65% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 65% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baník Ostrava defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.17 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.52 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 29% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 45%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 38%, Sigma Olomouc 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Baník Ostrava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.